Real options valuation

Opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor

Types of real options[ edit ] Simple Examples Investment This simple example shows the relevance of the real option to delay investment and wait for further information, and is adapted from "Investment Example".

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Consider a firm that has the option to invest in a new factory. It can invest this year or next year. The question is: when should the firm invest? If the firm invests this year, it has an income stream earlier.

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But, if it invests next year, the firm obtains further information about the state of the economy, which can prevent it from investing with losses. The firm knows its discounted cash flows if it invests this year: 5M. If it invests next year, the discounted cash flows are 6M with a The investment cost is 4M. If the firm invests next year, the present value of the investment cost is 3.

opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor

Following the net present value rule for investment, the firm should invest this year because the discounted cash flows 5M are greater than the investment costs 4M by 1M.

Yet, if the firm waits for next year, it only invests if discounted cash flows do not decrease.

opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor

If discounted cash flows decrease to 3M, then investment is no longer profitable. If, they grow to 6M, then the firm invests.

opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor

This implies that the firm invests next year with a Thus the value to invest next year is 1. Given that the value to invest next year exceeds the value to invest this year, the firm should wait for further information to prevent losses. This simple example shows how the net present value may lead the firm to take unnecessary risk, which could opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor prevented by real options valuation.

Staged Investment Staged investments are quite often in the pharmaceutical, mineral, and oil industries. In this example, it is studied a staged investment abroad in which a firm decides whether to open one or two stores in a foreign country. This is adapted from "Staged Investment Example".

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The firm does not know how well its stores are accepted in a foreign country. If their stores have high demand, the discounted opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor flows per store is 10M. If their stores have low demand, the discounted cash flows per store is 5M. It is also known that if the store's demand is independent of the store: if one store has high demand, the other also has high demand. The investment cost per store is 8M. Should the firm invest in one store, two stores, or not invest?

The net present value suggests the firm should not invest: the net present value is But is it the best alternative?

Ce este investiția financiară și cum diferă acestea de cele reale

Following real options valuation, it is not: the firm has the real option to open one store this year, wait a year to know its demand, and invest in the new store next year if demand is high. The value to open one store this year is 7. Thus the value of the real option to invest in one store, wait a year, and invest next year is 0.

opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor

Given this, the firm should opt by opening one store. This simple example shows that a negative net present value does opțiuni binare broker recenzii imply that the firm should not invest.

Sunteți pe pagina 1din 9 Căutați în document 3. Decizia de investitii Elementele financiare ale investitiei Portofoliul firmei 3. Decizia de investitii Din punct de vedere financiar, prin investitie se ntelege o decizie prin care o suma prezenta si certa este schimbata pe venituri superioare viitoare dar care au un anumit grad de probabilitate. Din punct de vedere al fluxurilor monetare, o investitie poate fi de patru feluri: investitie cu o singu j98e ra cheltuiala intrare initiala si o singura ncasare iesire la ncheierea perioadei n care are loc investitia; investitie cu intrari multiple, pe parcursul executiei obiectivului de investiti si cu o singura iesire, la sfrsit; investitie cu o singu j98e ra intrare initiala si iesiri multiple, pe parcursul executiei; investitie cu intrari multiple si iesiri multiple, pe parcursul executiei. Fundamentarea deciziei de investitii urmareste maximizarea valorii actuale nete a investitiei.

The flexibility available to management — i. Real options are also commonly applied to stock valuation - see Strategie de opțiuni binare sigure valuation § Option pricing approaches - as well as to various other "Applications" referenced below.

opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor

Options relating to project size[ edit ] Where the project's scope is uncertain, flexibility as to the size of the relevant facilities is valuable, and constitutes optionality. Management then has the option but not the obligation to expand — i.

A project with the option to expand will cost more to establish, the excess being the option premiumbut is worth more than the same without the possibility of expansion.

Investiții - concepte de bază

This is equivalent to a call option. Option to contract : The project is engineered such that output can be contracted in future should conditions turn out to be unfavourable.

Mare, mai ales atunci când investești în industrii semnificative din punct de vedere social Insemnificativ, care se datorează în mare măsură nivelului tot mai mare de speculații goodies Profit ridicat, îmbunătățind bunăstarea oamenilor, risc scăzut Posibilitatea de a investi o sumă mică, simplitatea procedurii, puteți echilibra veniturile și riscurile alegând instrumente financiare dintr-o listă impresionantă contra O intrare mare, cunoștințe despre industria în care se investesc banii, inaccesibilitatea omului comun. Mai probabil să pierzi capital, rentabilitate redusă. Dacă nu sunteți milionar, nu ar trebui să luați în considerare investiții reale din punct de vedere practic, dar puteți investi în instrumente financiare - acțiuni, obligațiuni, alte valori mobiliare, metale prețioase, fonduri mutuale. Fie că acest tip de investiții să fie opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor puțin profitabile, iar riscurile de aici sunt crescute, cu afaceri pricepeți, câștigând experiență și cunoștințe în sectorul economic, putem conta pe creșterea capitalului propriu.

Forgoing these future expenditures constitutes option exercise. This is the equivalent to a put optionand again, the excess upfront expenditure is the option premium.

Option to expand or contract: Here the project is designed such that its operation can be dynamically turned on and off. Management may shut down part or all of the operation when conditions are unfavorable a put optionopțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor may restart operations when conditions improve a call option.

Gestiunea investitiilor reale

A flexible manufacturing system FMS is a good example of this type of option. This option is also known as a Switching option.

opțiuni reale în gestionarea investițiilor

Options relating to project life and timing[ edit ] Where there is uncertainty as to when, and how, business or other conditions will eventuate, flexibility as to the timing of the relevant project s is valuable, and constitutes optionality. Growth options are perhaps the most generic in this category — these entail the option to exercise only those projects that appear to be profitable at the time of initiation.

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Initiation or deferment options: Here management has flexibility as to when to start a project. For example, in natural resource exploration a firm can delay mining a deposit until market conditions are favorable. This constitutes an American styled call option.

Delay option with a product patent: A firm with a patent right on a product has a right to develop and market the product exclusively until the expiration of the patent.

The firm will market and develop the product only if the present value of the expected cash flows from the product sales exceeds the cost of development.

If this does not occur, the firm can shelve the patent and not incur any further costs.